Key insights and trends impacting the world of commercial real estate in the year ahead
2014 promises to be an interesting year in the commercial property sector. For much of the world, even in many emerging economies, GDP growth in 2014 is expected to be below 5 percent as a norm. Meanwhile, investors driven, in part, by expected changes in U.S. economic policy, will be active in seeking out opportunities in new markets in what is becoming an increasingly competitive landscape.
According to Colliers International latest report, the global economy will grow slowly in 2014, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth remaining below five percent in most countries. This and other global insights are included in a report, 25 Predictions for 2014, which also forecasts expansion in second-tier markets as global investors look for new opportunities.
“Around the world, we foresee investors looking to emerging foreign markets for opportunities, with European investors focused on Germany, Poland, Spain and Ireland, and Chinese investors moving into Europe and the Americas,” said KC Conway, chief economist at Colliers International. “In the U.S., rising interest rates could drive up the cost of capital and encourage investors to turn to secondary markets, such as Charlotte, Tampa, Indianapolis and Memphis.”
Key takeaways from Colliers’ 25 Predictions for 2014 report include:
European Economy Overcomes Recession, Strengthens Investment: With the debt crisis in Europe dwindling, strong demand will drive recovery in the U.K., Italy, Germany and Spain. As a result, confidence among U.K. investors will rise in 2014, driving the GDP up by as much as 2.5 percent.
Infrastructure Improvements and Urbanization in the Middle East: Middle Eastern economies will continue to see growth beyond the oil industry. Colliers predicts significant spending among Gulf Cooperation Council member countries, as well as infrastructure improvements as urbanization continues throughout the region.
Office Market Grows in Asia’s Main Financial Centers: Rents have stabilized in Asia’s office sector, with growth predicted to be at about five percent in 2014 in the five main financial centers: Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Seoul and Tokyo. Chinese investors will look overseas as they seek investment opportunities in gateway cities, such as London, New York and Sydney.
Indian Government Regulations to Bring Transparency: New government policies will bring transparency to real estate regulations in India, potentially changing the sector dramatically in 2014. The office sector will also see growth in demand and rents rising 10 to 16 percent in the next year.
Development Activity Rises in New Zealand, Domestic Investment Grows in Australia: In New Zealand, development growth will include office space and shopping malls, both to accommodate limited space in core markets, and counteract earthquake concerns among aging properties. In Australia, a market that was once saturated by foreign investors, domestic investors have regained the majority stake, accounting for more than 70 percent of sales.
Interest Rates and Home Prices Rise, but U.S. Will See Sluggish GDP Growth: Investors around the world are awaiting news from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the tapering of interest rates. While the move has global implications, the U.S. will continue to see slow economic growth, with the GDP averaging about two percent. The housing market also will continue to recover, with home prices rising up to nine percent. The industrial sector will be the top-performer in the real estate industry, with manufacturers making plans to adjust supply chains when the Panama Canal Expansion is complete next year.
“In the coming year, the U.S. will see additional changes as we inch closer to the completion of the Panama Canal expansion in 2015, the global supply chain is set to change drastically,” said Conway. “U.S. ports will benefit from increased traffic when the canal opens, setting the stage for growth among the industrial sector.”
You can download and view the full 9-page report here.
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