A retail agent in Seattle first noticed the increased phone calls in July of 2011. For another, who represents shopping centers in the Philadelphia market, the calls began around February of 2012. The inquiries came from numerous potential tenants looking for a variety of sizes and locations, all with one thing in common: Each had some connection to the health care industry.
Health care users want retail space. The trend is undeniable at a local, regional and national scope, and includes dental and vision care, physical therapy, kidney dialysis and urgent care. Health care users, like traditional retailers, can attract more customers with a convenient high-visibility location, where customers can combine a trip to the physical therapist with a stop at the dry cleaner or grocery store.
OBAMACARE DEMAND GROWTH WILL SLACKEN, BUT BOOMER DEMAND IS JUST GETTING STARTED
Two factors are fueling this demand: In the short term, the Affordable Care Act will produce millions of newly-insured medical consumers. In the long term, an aging generation of baby boomers will need more care in more places.
OBAMACARE WILL CREATE 30 MILLION NEW MEDICAL CONSUMERS
By January 2014, most Americans will be required to purchase medical insurance under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In 2015, employers with more than 50 employees will have to offer insurance to their employees. All told, Obamacare is expected to give insurance to about thirty million Americans, nearly ten percent of the U.S. population. Service providers are scrambling to be ready to serve those newly-minted health care consumers.
AGING BOOMERS WILL PUSH DEMAND GROWTH THROUGH 2030
The aging population of baby boomers will spur a slow growth spurt that won’t subside for nearly two decades. This growing group will need-and spend more on-medical care. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, older Americans spend 12.2% of their money on health care, nearly double the proportion spent by all Americans.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
OUTLOOK: Q4 AND BEYOND
Medical users which had expanded their roll-outs in advance of the Affordable Care Act are now waiting for January 2014 to see what happens next. Growth of medical retail in lower-income communities should level off as supply and demand come to equilibrium. But for services that are targeted at middle-income families and the boomer population, demand increases are still on the horizon. While the exact numbers remain unclear at this time, the overall effect is certain: the medical retail user will become as commonplace in shopping centers as the grocery store
Brought to you by the Colliers U.S. Research team, Colliers Analysis is a quick look at a key trend or statistic in commercial office, retail or industrial real estate.
As US Director of Research,James Cook oversees the commercial property research services provided to Colliers International offices in the United States. As a part of the National Research Group, he delivers world class consulting services to company clients. James takes a practical approach to research, turning mountains of data into actionable analysis.